Business Monitor International


Argentina Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 120 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We have grown increasingly bullish on Argentina's upstream this quarter. Formal resolution to the Repsol-YPF dispute has removed a major barrier to international oil companies looking to enter the Argentine oil and gas sector. Increased investment and a growing exploration drive point to a marked improvement in investor sentiment, and we expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters.

Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 706.3 686.8 692.6 699.6 707.6 716.9 727.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 38.4 38.6 39.0 39.8 40.8 41.8 42.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 47.5 49.0 50.9 52.9 55.1 57.3 59.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 622.2 622.2 622.2 622.2 622.2 622.2 622.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 723.6 748.1 776.8 811.5 855.0 910.9 983.2
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:

  BMI View :   We have grown increasingly bullish on Argentina's upstream this quarter. Formal resolution to the Repsol-YPF dispute has removed a major barrier to international oil companies looking to enter the Argentine oil and gas sector. Increased investment and a growing exploration drive point to a marked improvement in investor sentiment, and we expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters. Nevertheless, our oil and gas production forecasts remain comparatively cautious, and this is largely due to the legacy of a poor business environment and the substantial operational risks inherent to Argentina. However, the country's vast shale potential, and recent indications of more moderate policymaking, suggests that the risks to our view lie firmly to the upside.

The main...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Argentina Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Argentina Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Recent Company Pledges To Argentine Unconventional Development
15
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Argentina Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Argentina Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
20
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Argentina Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Argentina Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
26
Revenues/Import Costs
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
31
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
36
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Argentina - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Argentina Upstream Ratings
39
Argentina Downstream Ratings
39
Market Overview
41
Argentina Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
41
Government Policy
42
Licensing Rounds
43
International Energy Relations
44
Argentina - Major Upstream Projects
47
Table: Argentina - Upstream Projects Database
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
47
Oil Refineries
47
Table: Refineries In Argentina
48
Service Stations
49
Oil Terminals/Ports
49
Oil Pipelines
49
LNG Terminals
50
Gas Storage
51
Gas Pipelines
51
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
55
Table: Key Upstream Players
56
Table: Key Downstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
YPF
57
Petrobras
61
Chevron
65
Total
68
ExxonMobil
72
Royal Dutch Shell
75
Apache Energy
77
Other Summaries
79
Regional Overview
84
Latin America Overview
84
Global Industry Overview
94
Global Energy Market Overview
94
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
96
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
97
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
98
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
100
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
100
Appendix
103
Latin America - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
110
Argentina - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
117
Table: LPG Consumption, Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
118
Table: LPG Consumption, Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Source
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
125
Table: Weighting
126

The Argentina Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Argentina including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Argentina Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Argentina to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc