Business Monitor International


Argentina Freight Transport Report

Published 31 October 2014

  • 97 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. We forecast real GDP to expand by a revised 1.7% in 2015, down from our previous forecast of 3.1%, implying only a modest improvement from 2014's forecasted growth of 0.4%. Argentina's economic recovery will be muted in the coming quarters as currency weakness and high inflation weigh on private consumption, which will have a negative knock-on effect on freight transport volumes. The main driver of the slowdown is the impact of the country's January 2014 currency devaluation, which sent inflation expectations soaring. As a result, consumer confidence has plunged.

We acknowledge that some risks remain to the upside, as an improving business environment and more moderate economic policies could lead to a surge in inbound investment for the country's oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, we caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes in the coming years.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total volume at the port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 1.6% in 2015 to reach 11.2mn tonnes.

  • Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.5% to 242.7mn tonnes in 2015, with average annual growth 5.3% during our forecast period.

  • Rail freight hauled in 2015 will grow by a modest 1.08% to 23.0mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 1.9% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Belgrano reopening

The Belgrano network re-opened in September 2014, following work to renovate the track and repair a bridge . On September 11 the Minister of the Interior & Transport Florencio Randazzo joined the Governor of the Jujuy province Eduardo Fellner to welcome the first freight train to arrive in Palpalá, following the work, which restored a section of the 1,000mm gauge Belgrano network back to operating condition. 

Chile,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
17
Air Freight
17
Table: Air Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
19
Maritime Freight
19
Table: Maritime Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
21
Table: Trade Overview (Argentina 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Argentina 2011-2018)
22
Table: Argentina's Main import Partners, 2004-2012
23
Table: Argentina's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Industry Trends and Developments
28
Company Profile
31
America Latina Logistica
31
Agunsa
36
Aerolineas Argentinas
39
Ultrapetrol
42
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Long-Term Politics
51
Table: Argentina Political Overview
55
Oil Price Outlook
56
Bunker fuel
56
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
56
The Storm Clears For Shipping
57
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
59
Long-Term Threats Linger
60
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
61
Risks To Outlook
62
Jet Fuel
63
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
63
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
63
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
65
Risks To Outlook
68
Diesel
69
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
69
New York's One-Off Heat Up
69
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
72
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
76
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
78
Risks To Outlook
82
Macroeconomic Forecasts
83
Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure
88
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Sources
95

The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc