Business Monitor International


Argentina Freight Transport Report

Published 03 February 2014

  • 97 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and ongoing labour unrest. We expect growth to reach 2.9% in 2014. We caution that the country will continue to struggle with spiralling inflation, sluggish private consumption, and a net rag on exports.

We acknowledge that there are some risks remain to the upside, as an improving business environment and more moderate economic policies could lead to a surge in inbound investment into the country's oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, we caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes in the coming years.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 2.6% in 2014 to reach 11.5mn tonnes.

  • Air freight volume is set to grow by 5.1% to 242.4mn tonnes-km in 2014, with average annual growth 6.8% during our forecast period.

  • Rail freight hauled in 2014 will grow by a modest 2.1% to 23.6mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 2.9% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Mendoza Aiming For Logistics Hub Role

Argentina's western province of Mendoza, which borders Chile and offers freight transport links to Chilean ports, is transforming itself into a logistics hub - part of a wider trend of Argentine investment into the country's freight transport network. Mendoza's plans to upgrade an existing rail line that will link up with the port of Buenos Aires will complete the link between South America's Pacific and Atlantic Coasts, providing upside risk to throughput traffic at ports in both Chile and Argentina.

Government Signs US$2.47bn Financing Deal With CMEC

Argentine Interior and Transport...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight 2011-2018
17
Air Freight
17
Table: Air Freight 2011-2018
19
Maritime Freight
19
Table: Maritime Freight 2011-2018
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview 2011-2018
21
Table: Argentina's Main import Partners, 2004-2012
22
Table: Argentina's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Company Profile
32
America Latina Logistica
32
Agunsa
37
Aerolineas Argentinas
40
Ultrapetrol
43
Political Outlook
48
Domestic Politics
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
52
Table: Argentina Political Overview
56
Oil Price Outlook
57
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
57
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
57
Methodology
59
Crude Price Forecasts
60
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
60
Oil Product Price Forecasts
60
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
61
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
62
Weak Demand Persists
63
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
64
Quarterly Prices
68
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
68
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
69
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
71
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
77
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
79
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
79
Risks To Outlook
81
Macroeconomic Forecasts
82
Table: Argentina - Gdp By Expenditure
88
Demographic Forecast
91
Demographic Outlook
91
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
93
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
94
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sector-Specific Methodology
96
Sources
97

The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc