BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. We forecast real GDP to expand by a revised 1.7% in 2015, down from our previous forecast of 3.1%, implying only a modest improvement from 2014's forecasted growth of 0.4%. Argentina's economic recovery will be muted in the coming quarters as currency weakness and high inflation weigh on private consumption, which will have a negative knock-on effect on freight transport volumes. The main driver of the slowdown is the impact of the country's January 2014 currency devaluation, which sent inflation expectations soaring. As a result, consumer confidence has plunged.
We acknowledge that some risks remain to the upside, as an improving business environment and more moderate economic policies could lead to a surge in inbound investment for the country's oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, we caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes in the coming years.
Headline Industry Data
Total volume at the port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 1.6% in 2015 to reach 11.2mn tonnes.
Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.5% to 242.7mn tonnes in 2015, with average annual growth 5.3% during our forecast period.
Rail freight hauled in 2015 will grow by a modest 1.08% to 23.0mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 1.9% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
The Belgrano network re-opened in September 2014, following work to renovate the track and repair a bridge . On September 11 the Minister of the Interior & Transport Florencio Randazzo joined the Governor of the Jujuy province Eduardo Fellner to welcome the first freight train to arrive in Palpalá, following the work, which restored a section of the 1,000mm gauge Belgrano network back to operating condition.
The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top 5 import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn).
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%).
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.