Business Monitor International


Argentina Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 53 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Argentina Business Forecast Report

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Low Confidence In Government Will Increase Pressure On FX Policy
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Significant Structural Challenges Ahead
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth To Slow In 2014
14
Table: GDP BY EXPENDITURE
14
Exchange Rate Policy
16
Short-Term Outlook
16
Table: BMI Argentina Currency Forecast
16
Balance Of Payments
18
External Accounts At Risk Of Further Deterioration
18
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
18
Fiscal Policy
20
Devaluation And Inflation Will Widen Budget Deficit
20
Table: FISCAL POLICY
21
Regional Monetary Policy
22
Regional Inflation Update: Divergence Continuing To Play Out
22
Table: CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION & MONETARY POLICY RATES
23
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Argentine Economy To 2023
27
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Business Environment
27
SWOT Analysis
27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
27
Business Environment Outlook
28
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
28
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
29
Infrastructure
30
Table: Labour Force Quality
30
Market Orientation
31
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
31
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
32
Operational Risk
33
TABLE: Top Export Destinations (US$mn)
33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Autos
35
Table: Autos Sales
35
Table: Autos Trade
36
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2017
36
Food & Drink
39
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
41
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
42
Other Key Sectors
43
Tabl e: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
Tabl e: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
43
Tabl e: Infrastructur e Sector Key Indicators
43
Tabl e: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
44
Tabl e: Defence & Securit y Sector Key Indicators
44
Tabl e: Freig ht Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
45
Global Outlook
45
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Tabl e: Em ergi ng Mark ets , Real GDP Growt h, %
47

The Argentina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Argentina and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Argentina's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Argentina's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Argentina's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Argentina, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Argentina Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Argentina economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Argentina through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Argentina Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Argentina and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Argentina, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Argentina over the next 5-years?

BMI's Argentina country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Argentina Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Argentina.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Argentina's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Argentina's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Argentina, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Argentina's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Argentina will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Argentina's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2008-2012, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2013-2017, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express