Business Monitor International


Argentina Autos Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 74 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Argentina declined 25.5% y-o-y in the first three months of 2014, to 151,306 units. BMI has become increasingly bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2014 on the back of a devaluation of the peso in January, and the likelihood of further weakness in the unit going forward, and new taxes on autos imports. High inflation, slowing real wage growth, and increasing unemployment levels are likely to keep private consumption subdued in 2014, weighing on consumers' appetite for big ticket purchases. Moreover, high base effects from strong sales growth in 2013 will temper the y-o-y growth rate. We expect these dynamics to continue over the coming months, and believe this will weigh on the autos sector. Accordingly, we forecast a bearish 20.0% decline over the year.

We caution that, if inflation continues to escalate, Argentine consumers may start to purchase vehicles as a store against inflation, as we have seen in Venezuela. This would serve to drive sales, but would lead to a huge increase in used car prices and further exacerbate inflation problems.

Vehicle production in Argentina contracted 16.2% y-o-y in the first three months of 2014, to 147,416 units, on the back of sustained declines in the domestic and export markets. BMI expects these dynamics to continue, and believes that this will weigh on output volumes over the year. Accordingly, we forecast vehicle production to decline 12.0% in 2014.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales and Trade
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Production
15
Trade
16
Passenger Vehicles
19
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
19
Sales
19
Table: Argentina Passenger Car Sales By Brand
19
Production
21
Table: Argentina Passenger Car Production By Brand
22
Trade
23
Investments
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
25
Sales
25
Table: Argentina Light Commercial Vehicle Sales By Brand
26
Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Sales By Brand
27
Table: Argentina Bus And Coach Sales By Brand
27
Production
28
Table: Argentina LCV Production By Brand
28
Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Production By Brand
28
Table: Argentina Bus And Coach Production By Brand
28
Suppliers
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
38
Company Profile
39
Industry Trend Analysis
39
Regional Overview
42
Global Industry Overview
47
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
47
European Growth Gathers Momentum
47
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
49
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
50
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
54
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
55
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
56
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
56
Methodology
57
Industry Forecasts
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
60

The Argentina Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Argentina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc