Vehicle sales in Argentina declined 34.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first nine months of 2014, to 472,044 units. BMI has become increasingly bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2014 on the back of a devaluation of the peso in January, the likelihood of further weakness in the unit going forward, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and new taxes on autos imports.
High inflation, slowing real wage growth, and increasing unemployment levels are likely to keep private consumption subdued in 2014 and 2015, weighing on consumers' appetite for big ticket purchases. While high base effects from strong sales growth in 2013 will worsen the y-o-y growth rate in 2014, the decline in sales and production will slow in 2015 as they fall from a lower base. Accordingly, we forecast a bearish 28.6% decline in total vehicle sales over 2014, followed by a further 4.2% decline in 2015.
We caution that, if inflation continues to escalate, Argentine consumers may start to purchase vehicles as a store against inflation, as we have seen in Venezuela. While this is not our current core view, this would serve to drive sales, but would lead to a huge increase in used car prices and further exacerbate inflation problems.
Vehicle production in Argentina contracted 24.2% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 461,291 units, on the back of sustained declines in the domestic and export markets. BMI expects these dynamics to continue, and believes that this will weigh on output volumes over the year. Consequently we are forecasting a 22.9% decline in 2014 followed by a further fall of 6.3% in 2015.
The Argentina Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Argentina.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.