Business Monitor International


Angola Oil & Gas Report

Published 07 April 2014

  • 116 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The outlook for Angola's oil and gas sector is positive. Although technical challenges led to production issues in 2013, we expect the start of major upstream projects such as Total's CLOV to boost push output higher by end 2014. Over the next decade, planned projects and the tie-back of additional discoveries to existing infrastructure will support strong growth in output over the course of our forecast period. However , we see risks that technical setbacks, industry wide pressure to cut costs, and potential regulatory issues could result in delays to anticipated volumes. An upcoming offshore licensing round and progress on resuming normal operations at the Angola LNG underscore the opportunities in the sector.

  • The main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows: Initial estimates from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) put crude production at 1.72mn b/d for 2013. The Angolan government has conservatively forecast that production will reach 1.8mn b/d in 2014, but has previously said that output will rise to 2mn b/d by 2015. Our own figures are broadly in line with official projections. We forecast Crude Oil, NGL and Other Liquids Production to reach 1.88mn b/d in 2014, rising to 1.97mn b/d in 2015.

  • Our optimistic outlook is based an assumption that production will continue to recover from setbacks witnessed in 2013, such as a force majeure from BP's Saturno crude stream, and that major new volumes will begin to deliver first oil. Several major upstream projects are also likely to received final investment decisions, which alongside a robust exploration schedule, should make 2014 a strong year for the Angolan oil sector.

  • One key risk to this view over the medium term is industry wide pressure to rein in spending. Major players in the Angolan oil sector, including BP and Statoil, have yielded to global cost pressures and committed to tighter budgets. This could result in delays to projects set...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Angola Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
10
Table: Angola Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Angola Oil Production And Net Exports, 2011-2016
14
Table: Angola Oil Production And Net Exports, 2017-2022
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Angola Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
21
Table: Angola Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
22
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
23
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
31
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Downstream Woes Still Weigh Down On Reward Potential
36
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Angola - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Angola Upstream Rating - Overview
39
Angola Downstream Rating - Overview
39
Market Overview
40
Angola Energy Market Overview
40
Table: Upstream Projects
41
Overview/State Role
43
Government Policy
44
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
48
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: Refineries In Angola
50
Competitive Landscape
52
Competitive Landscape Summary
52
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil And Gas Sector
53
Table: Key Upstream Players
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
Sonangol
55
Chevron
59
ExxonMobil
64
BP
67
Total
71
Eni
75
Other Summaries
79
Regional Overview
82
Africa Overview
82
Subsalt Expectations
83
East African Gas Boom
85
Revealing Untapped Potential
87
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
88
Post-Revolutionary Blues
90
Global Industry Overview
92
Global Energy Market Overview
92
Appendix
100
Africa - Regional Appendix
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
107
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
116

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc