Business Monitor International


Angola Oil & Gas Report

Published 18 August 2014

  • 141 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : The outlook for Angola's oil and gas sector is positive. Although technical challenges led to production issues in 2013, we expect the start of major upstream projects such as Total's CLOV to boost push output higher by end-2014. Over the next decade, planned projects and the tie-back of additional discoveries to existing infrastructure will support strong growth in output over the course of our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Angola 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,872.0 1,844.8 1,805.3 1,885.7 1,911.2 1,985.2 2,052.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.8 1.0 1.5 3.5 6.4 7.1 7.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 38.7 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 157.2 238.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 93.9 97.6 103.3 109.6 116.6 126.0 135.2
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA/BMI

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The key trends and developments in Angola's oil and gas sector are:  

  • Our optimistic outlook is based an assumption that production will continue to recover from setbacks witnessed in 2013, such as a force majeure from BP's Saturno crude stream, and that major new volumes will begin to deliver first oil. Several major upstream projects are also likely to received final investment decisions, which alongside a robust exploration schedule, should make 2014 a strong year for the Angolan oil sector.

  • One key risk to this view over the medium term is industry wide pressure to rein in spending. Major players in the Angolan oil sector, including BP and Statoil, have yielded to global cost pressures and committed to tighter budgets.

  • Angola is attracting a major wave of investment; there are some 32 offshore wells planned in 2014 and the country holds the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Angola Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: Angola Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Angola Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Angola Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Refining And Oil Products Trade
20
Table: Angola Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Angola Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
22
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Emerging Producers Leading the Pack
31
But Risks Above Ground Loom Large
33
Brightening Horizons To The West
35
An Underwhelming Downstream
36
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Angola - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Angola Upstream Rating - Overview
37
Angola Downstream Rating - Overview
37
Market Overview
39
Angola Energy Market Overview
39
Table: Upstream Projects
40
Overview/State Role
41
Government Policy
42
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
48
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: Refineries In Angola
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil And Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Sonangol
54
Chevron
59
ExxonMobil
64
BP
67
Total
71
Eni
76
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
84
Africa Overview
84
Rising Offshore Interest
84
Unconventionals : New Frontier
86
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
87
Downstream Blues
90
High-Risk Continent
92
Global Industry Overview
96
Global Energy Market Overview
96
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
98
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
99
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
100
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
102
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
102
Appendix
105
Africa - Regional Appendix
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Source
117
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
119
Table: Weighting
120

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc