Business Monitor International


Angola Business Forecast Report

Published 24 September 2014

  • 39 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Angola Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • We forecast that real GDP growth in Angola will average 5.4% annually between 2015 and 2019. The non-oil sector will be the main driver of growth over our 2015-2019 forecast period. High levels of government spending on infrastructure and oil exploration and development underpin strong growth in the construction, energy and transport sectors.

  • Plateauing oil revenues, a narrow tax base and heavy public spending will see Angola's fiscal balance remain firmly in the red over the next few years. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall - in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP - over our 2014-2018 forecast period.

  • The current account balance will steadily deteriorate over the next five years to stand at 1.0% of GDP by 2019, from an estimated 7.4% of GDP in 2014. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall - in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP - over our 2014-2018 forecast period.

  • Over the last six months, the country's traditionally fractured opposition parties have shown greater unity and been more openly critical of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA). Popular anti-government protests, a frequent occurrence since 2011, have assumed a more organised and political edge.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have made some adjustments to our forecasts for economic growth in Angola. We now forecast growth of 4.4% in 2014 and 5.6% in 2015, compared to 5.2% and 5.5% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Our forecasts, as always, remain subject to the myriad uncertainties associated with oil production and exploration in Angola, along with volatility in global oil prices.

  • Given that our forecasts only include planned oil projects, the upside potential posed by the country's vast and as yet unexploited sub-salt reserves pose a major upside risk to our forecasts over the medium-to-long term.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Angola 2012-2015)
Indicator 2012e 2013e 2014f

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Louder Opposition To Keep Tensions High
Louder Opposition To Keep Tensions High
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Path To Political Inclusion Uncertain And Slow
Path To Political Inclusion Uncertain And Slow
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth Outlook Softened As Risks Are Priced In
Growth Outlook Softened As Risks Are Priced In
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Imports To Drive Current Account Into The Red By 2018
Imports To Drive Current Account Into The Red By 2018
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
16
Monetary Policy
18
Inflationary Concerns Driving More Cautious Monetary Policy
Inflationary Concerns Driving More Cautious Monetary Policy
Table: MONETARY POLICY
18
Fiscal Policy
19
Successive Fiscal Deficits Ahead
Successive Fiscal Deficits Ahead
Table: FISCAL POLICY
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Angolan Economy To 2023
23
New Priorities, Familiar Challenges
New Priorities, Familiar Challenges
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Business Environment Outlook
26
Institutions
26
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
26
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
27
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
28
Infrastructure
29
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
29
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
30
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS (USDMN)
31
Operational Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
33
Power
33
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
34
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
35
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
35
Other Key Sectors
37
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
37
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
37
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
37
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
38
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
38
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
38
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
39
Global Outlook
39
Emerging Market Deceleration
39
Table: Global Assumptions
39
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
40
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
41

The Angola Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Angola and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Angola's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Angola's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Angola's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Angola, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Angola Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Angola economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Angola through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Angola Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Angola and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Angola, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Angola over the next 5-years?

BMI's Angola country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Angola Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Angola.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Angola's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Angola's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Angola, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Angola's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Angola will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Angola's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express