Business Monitor International


Algeria Power Report

Published 15 July 2014

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Algeria Power Report

BMI View: Despite Algerian government's efforts to spur the development of renewable energy in the country, conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with many power projects under construction or planned that will use natural gas. We estimate 2013 total power generation in Algeria was 50.4TWh , having risen 3.8% on the 2012 level. We forecast an average 4.7% annual increase to 60.9TWh between 2012 and 2017. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow at a similar pace - by 4.7% per annum and is forecast to reach 60.3TWh during the period to 2017.

We forecast Algeria's power consumption to rise from an estimated 40.9TWh in 2013 to 71.7TWh by the end of the forecast period. During the period 2012-2017, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.3%, but declining later in the decade to an average 5.5% in 2018-2023.

In early 2011 when the Algerian Council of Ministers approved a new national policy for renewable energy sources which aims to install 22,000MW of renewable energy capacity between 2012 and 2030. Out of the 22GW, 12GW was intended for domestic demand, with the remaining 10GW destined for export. Solar power has been highlighted as the technology with the most potential in the country, owing to the high insolation levels in the Sahara Desert.

Algeria ranks sixth out of 10 countries surveyed in our latest Middle East and North Africa Power Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). Low levels of liberalisation in the power sector, difficulties with accessing financing, high corruption and an opaque tendering process for projects all act as drag on the score and present sizeable challenges to developers. In addition, 2013 militants' attack of a gas site continues to undermine country's international profile, and reminds inherent risks of investing in the country.

Key Trends And D evelopments

  • In April 2014 when the government...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Algeria Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Algeria Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2017)
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2018-2023)
22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2017)
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2018-2023)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Algeria Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation and Competition
37
Algeria Power Projects Database
39
Table: Algeria Major Projects - Power
39
Competitive Landscape
40
Regional Overview
42
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
42
Glossary
51
Table: Glossary Of Terms
51
Methodology
52
Methodology And Sources
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Algeria Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Algeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Algeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc