Business Monitor International


Algeria Power Report

Published 22 May 2013

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Algeria Power Report

Executive Summary

BMI View: Algeria's role as a gas-producer made the headlines in early 2013 when militants attacked a gas site in the desert, near the border with Libya. The attack - and highly controversial response by the Algerian government - left many dead, reminding oil and gas firms of the risks associated with the country. Firms have to attempt to strike a balance between these risks, and the considerable opportunities presented in a nation with significant natural resources. In April, Spain's Repsol was the latest firm to announce a natural gas discovery in the country. In terms of electricity consumption, domestic capacity - which is practically entirely from thermal sources - struggles to meet demand, and as such, the government has launched several tenders in a plan to boost electricity generating capacity by 2016. But it is unclear who will be keen to invest. N ational laws inhibit international investment, and require firms to have a majority Algerian partner ; this limits opportunities in the country. Spain has been the latest country to request that this restriction be lifted.

BMI's 2013 Algeria Power Report forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 48.6 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012 to 78.8TWh by the end of 2022, assuming 4.9% average annual growth. Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation over the coming years, with many power projects under construction, or planned, that will use natural gas. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 4.6% per annum during the period to 2017, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade. Renewables will also contribute to a rise in electricity generation over the forecast period, although they will grow from a much smaller base.

Algeria is in a strong position as an energy exporter. Already a key source of gas for the EU, 2013 sees the country negotiating...

The Algeria Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Algeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Algeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc