Business Monitor International


Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Published 12 November 2014

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$1,295.00
Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Fertiliser production is increasing in Algeria with a third major complex coming onstream in 2015, but olefins and polymers production will remain small following the cancellation of the planned Arzew petrochemicals complex.

Petrochemicals have major potential as Algeria looks to reduce its reliance on raw commodity prices. Its main value-added products are methanol and fertiliser. Petrochemical exports amount to around two-thirds of Algeria's non-hydrocarbons exports, but hydrocarbons comprise 95% of the country's total exports. Algeria has the fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves in Africa but production has plateaued in recent years.

  • Algeria's petrochemicals market is likely to witness a steady improvement in growth in 2015. This is driven mainly by domestic demand and public investment activity.

  • The fertiliser sector is set to grow in 2015 as existing operators ramp up production and a third operator prepares to come online early in the year. Sonatrach's joint venture with Oman's Suhail Bahwan Holding Group (SBGH), Al Djazaïria Al Omania Lil Asmida (AOA) has capacities for 1.46mn tpa of ammonia and 2.56mn tpa of urea and was due to come into full commercial operation in Q115.

  • Fertial, a joint venture between Spain's Grupo Villar Mir and Sonatrach's subsidiary Asmidal, is also planning to modernise its two ammonia production sites in Arzew and Annaba and increase production capacity from 1.2mn tpa to 1.8mn tpa by 2018.

  • An improvement in Algeria's country risk score has nudged its overall Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) up by 0.2 points to 35.4 points this quarter. However, following the cancellation of the Arzew Petrochemicals Complex, it is unlikely to improve its place position, where it languishes 2.4 points behind Nigeria in the Middle East and Africa petrochemicals RRI matrix.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Consumption
14
Production
15
Table: Arzew Complex Planned Capacities ('000 tonnes)
16
Table: Algeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Algeria - Economic Activity
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
27
Algeria Petrochemicals Risk Reward Ratings
27
Market Overview
29
Upstream
29
Chemicals and Petrochemicals
30
Table: Algeria Cracker Capacity, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa)
32
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Upstream
33
Table: Petrochemicals Capacity At The Planned Arzew Complex
34
Olefins & Polyolefins
34
Methanol
36
Fertiliser
36
Regulation
36
Company Profile
38
Sonatrach
38
Regional Overview
43
Middle East And Africa Overview
43
Looking To Asia
44
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
46
African Growth Focused In The North
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
53
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
54
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
55
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
56
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
56
Gasoline
58
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
58
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
59
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
60
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
63
Risks To Outlook
66
Diesel
66
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
67
New York's One-Off Heat Up
67
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
70
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
74
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
76
Risks To Outlook
80
Jet Fuel
81
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
81
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
81
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Bunker fuel
87
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
87
The Storm Clears For Shipping
88
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
90
Long-Term Threats Linger
91
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
93
Risks To Outlook
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
99
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
104

The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc