Business Monitor International


Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Algeria Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: Algeria focuses on low added-value production, relying on commodity chemicals that are highly price- responsive to market fluctuations and easily undermined by capacity elsewhere in the world.

The industry is far from competing on equal terms with European petrochemicals producers with regard to product diversification. As such, it will be vulnerable to market fluctuations in the narrow range of products it produces, although the effects on margins should be cushioned by the local availability of competitively priced feedstock.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Algeria's petrochemicals market is likely to witness a steady improvement in growth in 2015. This is driven mainly by domestic demand and public investment activity.

  • Growth in hydrocarbons and a significant rise in polymer output in the near-to-medium term are not expected.

  • Algeria's manufacturing petrochemicals industry is unlikely to grow.

Recent Developments

  • The plans for the new Arzew petrochemicals complex have been abandoned.

The deal between Sonatrach and Total for a new petrochemicals complex has failed. This means that Algeria is unlikely to capitalise on its gas reserves to generate downstream growth.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Consumption
14
Production
15
Table: Arzew Complex Planned Capacities ('000 tonnes)
16
Table: Algeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Algeria - Economic Activity
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
27
Algeria Petrochemicals Risk Reward Ratings
27
Market Overview
29
Upstream
29
Chemicals and Petrochemicals
30
Table: Algeria Cracker Capacity, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa)
32
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Upstream
33
Table: Petrochemicals Capacity At The Planned Arzew Complex
34
Olefins & Polyolefins
34
Methanol
36
Fertiliser
36
Regulation
36
Company Profile
38
Sonatrach
38
Regional Overview
43
Middle East And Africa Overview
43
Looking To Asia
44
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
46
African Growth Focused In The North
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
53
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
54
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
55
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
56
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
56
Gasoline
58
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
58
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
59
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
60
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
63
Risks To Outlook
66
Diesel
66
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
67
New York's One-Off Heat Up
67
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
70
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
74
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
76
Risks To Outlook
80
Jet Fuel
81
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
81
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
81
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Bunker fuel
87
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
87
The Storm Clears For Shipping
88
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
90
Long-Term Threats Linger
91
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
93
Risks To Outlook
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
99
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
104

The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc