Business Monitor International


Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 87 pages
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$1,295.00
Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Algeria is set for a surge in petrochemicals output growth this year, provided plans go ahead as scheduled. With a lacklustre domestic market, producers will be reliant on export markets to fill the order books.

Algeria's petrochemicals market is likely to come under increasing pressure with slower growth in demand. BMI's Country Risk team has become more negative on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for the country, having revised down its 2014 GDP growth forecast from 4.4%, to 3.2%. Indeed, we now feel that the economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Given continued delays in investment in the energy sector, net hydrocarbons exports will remain flat over the coming years. The government's inability to liberalise the economy and declining public revenues will also constrain both private and public investment. We project real GDP growth averaging just 3.6% over the 2014-18 period. Against this deteriorating backdrop, we feel that it is right to adopt a cautious near-term stance. We now believe that new vehicle sales could fall by around 3% in 2014, before a recovery begins in 2015.

  • This quarter, BMI is less upbeat about the prospects for growth in the Algerian petrochemicals market in response to a downgrade in GDP growth and the continued slow pace of industrial growth. We now feel that the economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Declining hydrocarbon exports will ensure that the economy expands below potential, a trend which we expect to continue over the medium term.

  • While the domestic market will absorb some of the rise in output that is due to come from new plants, the successful expansion of the sector is predicated on growth in the European market, which has remained in the doldrums. New capacity will still be rudimentary by contemporary standards and will lack sufficient processing capacity, leaving the country dependent on imports of semi-finished and finished plastic products.

  • Algeria has focused on low...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Arzew Complex Capacities, 2014 ('000 tonnes)
16
Table: Algeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Macroeconomic Analysis
17
Private Consumption Outlook
18
Fixed Investment Outlook
18
Government Consumption Outlook
19
Net Exports Outlook
20
Table: Algeria - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Africa Coming Into View As Gulf States Mature
24
Arab Spring Takes Its Toll
24
Regulatory Framework Dictates Risks
25
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Regional Risk Reward Ratings
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Market Overview
28
Table: Algeria Cracker Capacity, 2009-2016 ('000 tpa)
32
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Upstream
33
Table: Table: Petrochemicals Capacity At The Planned Arzew Complex
35
Olefins & Polyolefins
35
Methanol
36
Fertiliser
37
Regulation
37
Company Profile
39
Sonatrach
39
Regional Overview
43
Table: Africa's Gas Reserves, 2012 (bcm)
43
Table: Africa's Oil Reserves, 2012 (bn bbl)
43
Egypt And Algeria Lead The Way
43
Global Petrochemicals Overview - Q213
47
Global Petrochemicals Overview
47
Change In Feedstock, But Not In Market Cycle
48
Polymers Heading On Different Trajectories
50
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
51
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
51
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
53
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
57
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
59
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
59
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
60
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
60
Demographic Forecast
63
Demographic Data
63
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
64
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
65
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
Glossary
67
Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms
67
Methodology
68
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
68
Cross Checks
69
Risk/Reward Ratings
69
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
70
Weighting
71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc