Business Monitor International


Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Published 24 March 2014

  • 133 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Algeria Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite Algeria's substantial hydrocarbons reserves, rapid production decline in the country's major producing fields weighs on its longer-term production outlook. Whilst new projects due online in the coming years will offer temporary support to production growth, we grow increasingly bearish towards the end of our 10-year forecas t period. The high prospectives of Algeria's unconventional and offshore acreage could see this trend reversed, but a poor above-ground environment continues to drag on international investment.

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are :

  • In January 2014, Algeria launched its tenth licensing round, with a total of 31 blocks up for tender. Of these, 17 are in the south of the country, five in the north and nine in the centre. This will be the country's first licensing round since reform of the hydrocarbon law in January 2013, and the attack on the In Amenas gas facility. We anticipate the recent tax reforms and vast below-ground potential will help draw interest in the round, but see fiscal incentives counteracted by a weighty bureaucracy, high level state involvement, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing regional instability.

  • This quarter, the Algerian government has given formal approval for shale gas exploration in the country, and is openly seeking foreign partners for help in development. However, whilst several industry majors have expressed interest in the country's unconventional potential, we do not see unconventional resources materially impact our production forecasts within our 10-year forecast period.

  • Terrorist attacks, in particular at BP's In Amenas gas plant, have created security concerns for investors. However, improvements to security protocols made in recent months could see a normalisation of operations within the coming quarters.

  • We forecast that total oil production will rise only slightly, from estimated 1.8mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 1.9mn b/d in 2017 as...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
12
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Refining And Oil Products Trade
30
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
30
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
34
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
An Underwhelming Downstream
41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
47
Algeria Energy Market Overview
47
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database
48
Overview/State Role
48
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
50
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
LNG
53
Oil Refineries
53
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
61
Competitive Landscape Summary
61
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
62
Table: Key Upstream Players
63
Table: Key Downstream Players
63
Company Profile
64
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
64
Anadarko
70
Eni Algeria Production
73
BP
77
Total
80
Repsol
83
BHP Petroleum
86
Cepsa
88
Statoil
92
Other Summaries
95
Regional Overview
99
Africa Overview
99
Rising Offshore Interest
99
Unconventionals : New Frontier
101
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
102
Downstream Blues
105
High-Risk Continent
107
Global Industry Overview
111
Global Energy Market Overview
111
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
113
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
114
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
115
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
117
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
117
Appendix
120
Africa - Regional Appendix
120
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
124
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
126
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
127
Algeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
128
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
128
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
129
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
130
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
131
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
132
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
133
Table: Algeria LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
134
Table: Algeria LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
134
Glossary
136
Table: Glossary Of Terms
136
Methodology
138
Industry Forecast Methodology
138
Source
140
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
140
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
142
Table: Weighting
143

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc