Business Monitor International


Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 September 2014

  • 133 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Algeria Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite Algeria's substantial hydrocarbons reserves, rapid production decline in the country's major producing fields weighs on its longer-term production outlook. Whilst new projects due online in the coming years will offer temporary support to production growth, we grow increasingly bearish towards the end of our 10-year forec ast period. The high prospectivity of Algeria's unconventional and offshore acreage could see this trend reversed, but a poor above-ground environment continues to drag on international investment.

Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,874.2 1,838.3 1,862.8 1,885.5 1,896.1 1,890.6 1,868.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 80.3 79.2 77.9 78.9 81.7 85.9 89.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 32.0 33.3 34.6 36.0 37.1 38.2 40.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 450.3 401.1 403.3 408.9 418.2 494.4 561.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 328.1 341.2 354.5 367.6 380.5 393.0 404.8
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:

BMI View: Despite Algeria's substantial hydrocarbons reserves, rapid production decline in the country's major producing fields weighs on its longer-term production outlook. Whilst new projects due online in the coming years will offer temporary support to production growth, we grow increasingly bearish towards the end of our 10-year foreca st period. The high prospectivity of Algeria's unconventional and offshore acreage could see this trend reversed, but a poor above-ground environment continues to drag on international investment.

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:

  • In January 2014, Algeria launched its tenth licensing...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2018-2023)
10
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2018-2023)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2018-2023)
17
Refining
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2012-2017)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2018-2023)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2012-2017)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2018-2023)
26
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2018-2023)
28
Trade - Oil
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2012-2017)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2018-2023)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2018-2023)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Algeria 2012-2017)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Algeria 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
41
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
41
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
41
Angola in the Ascendant
42
Brightening Horizons to the West
43
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
43
An Underwhelming Downstream
45
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Market Overview
48
Algeria Energy Market Overview
48
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database
49
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
51
International Energy Relations
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
LNG
54
Oil Refineries
54
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
63
Table: Key Upstream Players
64
Table: Key Downstream Players
64
Company Profile
65
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
65
Anadarko
71
Eni Algeria Production
74
BP
78
Total
81
Repsol
84
BHP Petroleum
87
Cepsa
89
Statoil
93
Other Summaries
96
Regional Overview
100
Africa Overview
100
Rising Offshore Interest
100
Unconventionals : New Frontier
103
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
104
Downstream Blues
106
High-Risk Continent
109
Global Industry Overview
112
Global Energy Market Overview
112
Appendix
118
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
118
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
118
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
119
Africa - Regional Appendix
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
128
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
128
Algeria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2012-2017)
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2018-2023)
129
Algeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2012-2017)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2018-2023)
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2012-2017)
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2018-2023)
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2012-2017)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2018-2023)
135
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2012-2017)
136
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2018-2023)
136
Glossary
137
Table: Glossary Of Terms
137
Methodology
139
Industry Forecast Methodology
139
Source
141
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
141
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
143
Table: Weighting
144

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc