Business Monitor International


Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Published 24 March 2014

  • 133 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Algeria Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Algeria continues to dominate the African gas market. We expect that the country will progressively switch towards a higher proportion of LNG use for its exports as pipeline consumers in Europe are expected to see a flattening demand over the coming years. These exports will be fuelled by a steadily growing gas production, with projects such as Menzel Ledjmet Est , Touat, Ain Tsila , Reggane Nord and Timimoun set to come online in the next few years. A doption of new hydrocarbon s regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are , nonetheless , sceptical about the tax reform , which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers.

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are :

  • In January 2014, Algeria launched its tenth licensing round, with a total of 31 blocks up for tender. Of those, 17 are in the south of the country, five in the north and nine in the centre. This will be the country's first licensing round since the terrorist attack on the In Amenas gas facility and hydrocarbon law reform in January 2013.

  • The Touat projects appear to be on schedule, with a target start-up date for 2016. The field could add 4.5bcm of gas to the country's output at peak, contributing to our view that despite rapid depletion of major fields, the country could revive its gas production.

  • Anadarko's El Merk oil project started production in line with the planned scheduled throughout Q213. The project reached an output of 12,000 barrels per day (b/d) in May, which is expected to peak at about 130,000b/d by late 2015-early 2016.

  • There have been three other key developments in Algeria's hydrocarbons in 2013. Firstly, the attacks on the In Amenas plant and Ain Chikh pipeline. Secondly, the adoption of the 2013 Hydrocarbon law, revamping the production tax system, state ownership and exploration incentives. Finally, the start up...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
14
Oil Supply And Demand
19
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
Refining And Oil Products Trade
32
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
32
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
36
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
An Underwhelming Downstream
43
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Market Overview
49
Algeria Energy Market Overview
49
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database
50
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
51
Government Policy
52
Licensing Rounds
52
International Energy Relations
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
LNG
55
Oil Refineries
55
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape Summary
63
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
64
Table: Key Upstream Players
65
Table: Key Downstream Players
65
Company Profile
66
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
66
Anadarko
72
Eni Algeria Production
75
BP
80
Total
83
Repsol
86
BHP Petroleum
89
Cepsa
91
Statoil
95
Other Summaries
98
Regional Overview
103
Africa Overview
103
Offshore Rising
103
Unconventionals : New Frontier
106
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
106
Downstream Blues
108
High-Risk Continent
110
Global Industry Overview
113
Global Energy Market Overview
113
Appendix
121
Africa - Regional Appendix
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
128
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
128
Glossary
129
Table: Glossary Of Terms
129
Methodology
131
Industry Forecast Methodology
131
Source
133
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
133
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
135
Table: Weighting
137

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc