Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Libya Business Forecast Report
Concessions Defusing Tension Although tensions in other Arab states have led to the ousters of longtime leaders and civil wars, we do not expect social discontent to reach the same scale in Alger... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Angola Business Forecast Report
Core Views D riven by strong investment in its promising subsalt oil reserves and by a boom in exports from its already developed offshore oil plays, Angola is set to become one of the world's fast... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Botswana Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 4.2% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing interest in the country's mining sector and the investment in infr... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Cameroon Business Forecast Report
Core Views R eal GDP growth in Cameroon will climb above the 3.5% long-run trend for the next few years on the back of investment in several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Politic... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Cote d`Ivoire Business Forecast Report
Core Views Not only is real GDP growth expected to surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, but long-term growth is likely to benefit from a 'unification dividend'. We expect ann... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Congo, Dem. Rep. Business Forecast Report
Core Views I nterest in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC )'s mining sector has exploded over recent years, and we are expecting the sector to grow by an annual average of 13.7% through 2015. I... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following 2011’s political crisis, our forecasts see trend growth in Egypt settling at a lower rate over the coming five years as the political transition from authoritarian rule to comp... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Ethiopia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting Ethiopian real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2012 and 7.2% in 2013, a moderation from the estimated 8.8% expansion in 2011. The overall outlook remains stellar, with the econo... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Togo Business Forecast Report
Ivoirien Recovery Buoys The Region I n Côte d’Ivoire, we are expecting strong growth in 2012 as the country recovers from the post-electoral violence in early 2011. After a 5.4% contraction in 2011... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Ghana Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he Ghanaian economy will enjoy stellar economic growth over the medium term, propelled by the nascent oil and gas sector. Ghana’s abundant natural resources, fast growth trajectory and... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Kenya Business Forecast Report
Core Views: We believe that Kenyan economic activity will pick up over the course of 2012 as inflation falls and monetary policy is eased. We are forecasting full-year real GDP growth of 4.9%, up f... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Syria Business Forecast Report
Core Views Although we expect growth to accelerate slightly in 2012, we stress that the pace of economic expansion will remain somewhat anaemic. The ongoing crisis in Syria is likely to keep touris... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Mauritius Business Forecast Report
Core Views D espite a sluggish global growth outlook weighing on final consumption and private investment into Mauritius, the government appear committed in implementing the five-year Public Sector... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Morocco Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. On top of a very low base, strong interest from foreign i... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Mozambique Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect the rebalancing of the Mozambican economy away from private consumption and towards exports to continue over the years ahead as extractive industries gain greater importance, w... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Namibia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growth in 2012 is expected to pick up from 2011 as agricultural output hampered by flooding recovers and mining production expands. Government expenditures will continue to be a major dr... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Nigeria Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect robust growth in the years ahead, bolstered primarily by the non-oil sectors, which will benefit from burgeoning domestic demand. Security risks, which were on the rise at the... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Rwanda Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting economic expansion of 7.7% in 2012 and 7.6% in 2013 in Rwanda as the country benefits from a vibrant investment outlook and solid performance in final consumption. We ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / South Africa Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe the South African economy will continue its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast to slow to 2.7% in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011. Although the consume... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / South Sudan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Rising security concerns, both domestically amid various feuding factions and internationally between Sudan and South Sudan, will remain a huge challenge for the foreseeable future, adve... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Tanzania Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that real GDP growth in Tanzania will slow to 5.5% in 2012, from an estimated 6.2% in 2011, as high inflation and weakness in the tourism sector weigh on our outlook. We belie... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Tunisia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We foresee a slightly turbulent but successful transition following elections for a National Constituent Assembly in October 2011, and we expect to see a permanent government in place by... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Uganda Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growth is expected to be robust, although below potential owing to a variety of domestic and external constraints, including inflation, investor uncertainty and lack of clarity in the oi... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Zambia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Zambia will post strong growth in the years ahead, although our below-consensus view on external factors, particularly the price of copper, have caused us to revise down several of our f... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report
Core Views Although we forecast that the Zimbabwean economy will grow at robust rates of more than 7.0% over the coming years, we note that domestically focused industries are facing serious challe... Read More
Pub date: 04 Feb 2010 Global Special Report
EM To Outperform After years of progress on regulatory reform, macroeconomic restructuring and institutional convergence following the painful events of the Asian and Russian c... Read More
Pub date: 14 Feb 2011 Global Special Report
The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices A combination of improving economic growth, loose monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices ... Read More
Pub date: 18 Mar 2011 Global Special Report
A Country In Crisis The Worst Disaster Since World War ll Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has described the March 11 devastating earthquake and its aftermath as the country's worst disaster ... Read More
Pub date: 11 Aug 2011 Global Special Report
Economic growth in the US, Japan and the eurozone is faltering, putting the global economy on the verge of another recession. In this special report, Business Monitor International (BMI) assesses the ... Read More
Pub date: 04 Mar 2011 Global Special Report
History In The Making The wave of popular protests that has swept across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since January constitutes the biggest shake-up to the region for at least a generat... Read More
Pub date: 07 Mar 2012 Global Special Report
BMI View: Poor visibility on global macro prospects suggests that a purely top down approach could be insufficient in unearthing investment opportunities in 2012. In this article, we outline the ... Read More
Pub date: 13 Dec 2011 Global / North America Special Report
BMI examines the outlook for global private consumption over the next 10 years, and picks key emerging market and industry outperformers.... Read More
Pub date: 06 Jul 2011 Global Special Report
Executive Summary Where Next For The World Economy? Risks And Scenarios For The Recovery The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and... Read More
Pub date: 18 Jan 2011 Global Special Report
The global economic healing process is gaining momentum, and while risks abound as ever, we expect 2011 to herald a broadening and deepening phase of the recovery. Emerging markets are again set to... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
East and Central Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environme... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
North Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Southern Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Africa Regional Monitor
West Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monito... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Coverage includes BMI's Country Risk and Financial Markets team's global outlook, with unrivalled coverage of developed states, as well as key regional and country-by-country stories of emerging state... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Algeria Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: With annual food imports amounting to an estimated US$3.3bn, or 15% of the country's overall import bill, Algeria is one of the largest importers of agricultural goods in Africa. Besides t... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Africa / Algeria Autos Industry Report
Figures released by the Association des Concessionaires Automobiles d'Algerie (ACAA) in January 2012 show that 280,803 new cars were sold in Algeria in 2011 (excluding sales figures from the local BM... Read More
Pub date: 15 Dec 2011 Africa / Algeria Infrastructure Industry Report
Growth in Algeria’s construction industry will bounce back in 2011 demonstrating the resilience of the sector. Continued revenue from the country’s extensive oil and gas resources has helped to power... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Africa / Algeria Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Despite significant potential for exploration, we believe that unless new basins (or large fields in existing basins) are discovered, reserves could very well peak this decade. Furthermore,... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Africa / Algeria Petrochemicals Industry Report
We maintain our view that the Algerian economy will experience moderate rates of real GDP expansion with growth rates of 4.7% and 3.6% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. This is an improvement on the 2.9... Read More
Pub date: 10 Feb 2012 Africa / Algeria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Algeria’s attractiveness to foreign drugmakers remains tarnished by the heightened political and security risks, despite its relatively attractive demographic and socio-economic profile. Ad... Read More
Pub date: 15 Jul 2011 Africa / Algeria Power Industry Report
The newly published Algeria Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 33TWh in 2010 to 48TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 3.... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Africa / Angola Autos Industry Report
The end of the second phase of the Vehicle Restitution Programme in December 2011 has dampened BMI's optimism towards new vehicle sales in Angola in 2012 and prompted us to slightly revise down our ... Read More
Pub date: 16 Feb 2012 Africa / Angola Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: A severe infrastructure deficit and the number of projects currently underway in Angola - particularly in the transportation and the housing sectors – give us optimism about sustained growt... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Africa / Angola Mining Industry Report
Overview We forecast that Angola's Mining industry will grow by 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 in real terms. Growth is expected to remain stable thereafter with diamonds providing the main thrus... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Angola Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: With several new projects such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) and PSVM (150,000b/d) expected to come on-stream in the next few years, we see Angolan oil output rising substantially in the coming ... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Botswana Mining Industry Report
Diamonds To Remain Mainstay Of Mining Sector For Now In line with the Botswanan government's plans to diversify away from diamond revenues, there has been a swathe of new mining projects announced i... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Africa / Cameroon Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: Cameroon should enjoy a decent 2011/12 agricultural year on the back of positive production growth for most agriculture commodities. Coffee is predicted to show the strongest growth trajec... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Africa / Cameroon Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: The broader economic situation in Cameroon is stable and generally positive. Growth is forecast to accelerate slightly over 2011 while inflation is set to remain below 3%. Cameroon is centr... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Cameroon Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: With declining production and few new projects expected to come on-stream in the next decade, Cameroon's upstream oil outlook seems rather unsteady. Meanwhile, a more efficient usage of as... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Africa / Cameroon Mining Industry Report
Central Africa's mining sector is set to follow much of the continent by developing its substantial mineral wealth. As yet, the region is still far from achieving its full potential, but these recent... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Africa / Congo, Dem. Rep. Mining Industry Report
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s vast mineral resources will continue to attract greater international interest, given the country's huge untapped and high-grade reserves and an improving... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Africa / Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: While we continue to expect lacklustre growth in Côte d’Ivoire’s infrastructure market in 2011, we see increasing likelihood of growth returning to the positive territory from 2012. A combi... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Africa / Uganda Agribusiness Industry Report
Uganda BMI View: We hold a positive outlook for the coffee sector, which has developed in recent years on the back of government support and as high global prices encouraged investment into new tree... Read More
Pub date: 14 Mar 2012 Africa / Uganda Autos Industry Report
Kenya Data from the Kenya Motor Industry Association (KMI) show that while the total new vehicle market grew 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami had the biggest imp... Read More
Pub date: 12 Mar 2012 Africa / Uganda Food & Drink Industry Report
Kenya The dynamics of a stronger currency, tight monetary policy and improved weather conditions suggest that domestic demand conditions should remain reasonably healthy in 2012. While the lagged im... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Africa / Tanzania Infrastructure Industry Report
Kenya BMI View: Kenya's booming construction industry has faced significant headwinds, as rampant inflation - due to a weak shilling, among other factors - has seen building costs soar. Moreover, wi... Read More
Pub date: 30 Apr 2012 Global / Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI calculates that pharmaceutical expenditure in Sudan and South Sudan at final consumer prices reached SDG1.50bn (US$565mn) in 2011, equivalent to US$13.0 a person. The value of Sudan's pharmaceut... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Africa / Tanzania Power Industry Report
BMI View: Sudan's power sector is benefiting from large-scale investment in new infrastructure. China has emerged as one of the biggest players in the sector, having already played a major role in ... Read More
Pub date: 30 Apr 2012 Global / Africa Telecommunications Industry Report
BMI's inaugural report on the telecommunications markets of East Africa contains five-year forecasts for the fixed-line telephony, mobile subscriber and internet sectors of six countries: Burundi, Et... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: Even though Egypt food inflation has moderated since 2011's popular uprising, we still see food prices as a very sensitive political issue. Thus, we expect massive imports in most of the ag... Read More
Pub date: 25 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Autos Industry Report
Egypt's autos industry remains in the doldrums, with demand for new vehicles remaining depressed owing to a combination of economic and political strife. Sales fell during the revolution that saw fo... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The outlook on the Egyptian banking sector in 2012 remains subdued in light of a weak macroeconomic backdrop, risks of a currency devaluation, and elevated provisioning for loan losses. Net... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Consumer Electronics Industry Report
Egypt's consumer electronics market for computing devices, mobile handsets and video, audio and gaming products is projected at around US$3.7bn in 2012. This is expected to increase to US$5.6 by 201... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Defence & Security Industry Report
Egypt is heading into what can arguably be considered the most critical stage of its post-Mubarak democratic transition, as parliamentary elections are set to get underway in late November. Neverthel... Read More
Pub date: 20 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Food & Drink Industry Report
Egyptian food consumption values are expected to grow at a double-digit annual rates in both absolute and per-capita terms to 2016. Drivers of this trend will be a recovering economy, although elevat... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Freight Transport Industry Report
Through 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the freight transport sector, is political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 there are still ma... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Information Technology Industry Report
BMI View: Egypt's IT market is forecast to increase to US$1.7bn in 2012, up by around 8%, with our projection remaining unchanged from Q112. Consumer and business IT spending are projected to report ... Read More
Pub date: 30 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Infrastructure Industry Report
While the 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth we estimate took place within Egypt's construction sector in 2011 can be viewed as relatively positive, it does not reflect the underlying problems fac... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks Thanks, in part, to the political unrest that has swept Egypt since early 2011, the insurance sector has moved from an era of growth to one of stagnation. Prior to late 20... Read More
Pub date: 30 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Metals Industry Report
2011 will be a lost year for Egyptian metals production, with the civil unrest and political uncertainty undermining performance in the second half of the year, according to BMI's latest Egypt Metals... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Africa / Egypt Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: On the one hand, Egypt is a significant LNG exporter and its Nile Delta and Western Desert prospects have attracted independents and majors alike. On the other, the country has failed to av... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Petrochemicals Industry Report
Political uncertainties following the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak’s regime in early 2011 have not upset progress on the expansion of the Egyptian petrochemicals industry, according to BMI’s latest Egy... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: While Egypt’s healthcare and pharmaceuticals industry outlook continues to be dominated by macroeconomic themes, such as currency depreciation and political risk stemming from the upcoming ... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Egypt Power Industry Report
BMI View: In spite of substantial renewables potential, particularly in solar and wind sectors, Egypt looks set to remain over-dependent on gas- and oil-fired generation until it can proceed with pla... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Africa / Egypt Real Estate Industry Report
The Egypt Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments in the context of a market, which in spite of its long-term potential, continues to be susceptible to insta... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Retail Industry Report
BMI's Q212 Egypt Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from an expected EGP194.21bn (US$35.76bn) in 2012 to EGP332.41bn (US$61.21bn) by 2016, with long-term political sta... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Shipping Industry Report
BMI View : As we go into 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the ports and shipping sector, is political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 ... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Telecommunications Industry Report
Egypt's telecommunications market recorded mixed results in 2011 largely due to the political and, consequently, economic crisis that started in February 2011. While the mobile and internet sectors ... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Africa / Egypt Tourism Industry Report
Tourism Overview Latest figures for the first 11 months of 2011 (excluding unavailable data for October) show negative growth in tourist arrivals of just under 34% year-on-year (y-o-y). The damaging... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Crude output will rise slightly in the short term as output from Noble Energy's new Aseng and Alen projects comes onstream, offsetting declines in production from Equatorial Guinea's flagsh... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Gabon Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Gabon must tempt new investment in exploration and production or face a decline in output as fields mature. We expect oil volumes to fall from 241,000b/d in 2012 to 234,000b/d by 2016. The ... Read More
Pub date: 20 Apr 2012 Africa / Ghana Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: The cocoa sector will remain Ghana's most important agriculture sector over the coming years. High prices in previous years have prompted several government problems to increase output, and... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Africa / Ghana Autos Industry Report
The Ghana Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinat... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Africa / Ghana Food & Drink Industry Report
The latest data on real GDP growth reinforce our view that Ghana is at the beginning of a multi-year economic boom fuelled by the burgeoning oil and gas sector. Indeed, we expect it to be a major eco... Read More
Pub date: 16 Feb 2012 Africa / Ghana Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: Ghana has a nascent oil and gas sector and we believe that infrastructure sector growth will be driven by the demand for auxiliary infrastructure. This is fully in line with BMI's view that... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Ghana Mining Industry Report
The revision to our Ghana mining growth forecasts in Q212 reflects the release of new data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), as well as news of further expansion within the gold and ... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Africa / Ghana Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Ghana's nascent oil and gas industry is set to undergo a transformation over the next few years as the Jubilee and Greater Tweneboa projects ramp up to full production. Appraisal of other o... Read More
Pub date: 05 Apr 2012 Africa / Ghana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: While Ghana's business environment is superior to that of almost all of its neighbours in West and Central Africa, its domestic market is relatively small and it still struggles to attract ... Read More
Pub date: 30 Mar 2012 Africa / Ghana Telecommunications Industry Report
In this quarter's update on Ghana's telecoms market, we have incorporated the YE11 data from the National Communications Authority (NCA) latest operational and financial data published by some of the... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Kenya Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: 2012 will be a year of two halves for Kenyan banks. The first six months will prove challenging due to high inflation and interest rates and tight domestic liquidity. However, conditions s... Read More
Pub date: 03 Feb 2012 Africa / Kenya Freight Transport Industry Report
Things appear to be looking up for the Kenyan freight industry over the medium term as the country seems to have grasped the importance of investment in order to forge ahead and fulfil its potential.... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Africa / Kenya Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks Writing in March 2012, we remain of the view that Kenya's insurance sector is dynamic and resilient. Although the insurance companies are small organisations by most stand... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Africa / Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: The Kenyan government's focus on non-communicable disease awareness, prevention and treatment will increase the demand for chronic disease treatments in the country. To maximise returns on ... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Africa / Kenya Power Industry Report
BMI View: Kenya's power sector continues to introduce a more diversified energy-generation capability. Although Hydropower generation remains vulnerable to drought and variations in rainfall, additio... Read More